Seven swing states hold the key to 2024 presidential elections
A single state can change the course of history. In the worlds oldest democracy where 52 states vote to elect America’s commander in chief, power to decide who will win the presidency rests with select few ‘swing’ states.
Not many years ago, in 2000 Florida cost former vice president and then favourite democratic candidate Al Gore the presidency, 4 years later Ohio saw that George W Bush returned to the Oval Office. In 2016, despite loosing the popular vote to Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump walked in to White House courtesy Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
In a electoral system governed by the electoral college one has to win 270 plus of the 538 electoral votes distributed among the 50 states and the District of Columbia. These votes are divided broadly based on the size and voters in the state. So California, from where Kamala Harris has been a senator has the highest 55 electoral votes and for years its been a ‘Blue’ state, handing over these votes to the Democratic Party whose colour is Blue. The only exception of California turning Red which is the Republican Colour was when Hollywood star turned politician Ronald Reagan won the 1981 Presidency defeating incumbent president Jimmy Carter. Similarly, Texas with 40 electoral college votes is a Republican safe heaven.
Swings are the ones which are neither red or blue and turn their colour more frequently hence get the most in terms of time and resources from the presidential candidates. Five times it has happened that a president has got lesser popular votes and won the election. If experts are to be believed if a candidate wins 11 states he or she can win the race for the White House. Pennsylvania, Texas, Ohio, California, North Carolina, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Florida, New York , Virginia. These are the big draw states, but as most vote traditanolly to one party the swing states become all important.
The 2024 presidency where the poll margins put candidates within the probability of error margin, seven states Arizona(11 votes), Nevada(6 votes), Michigan(15 votes), Wisconsin(10 votes), North Carolina(16 votes), Pennsylvania (19 votes) and Georgia(16 votes) hold the key. Collectively they account for 93 crucial votes.
In 2020, Trump was turned down by Arizona which shares the border with Mexico and where Trump proposed to build the wall to stop illegal immigration. Georgia the state from where Martin Luther King Jr. came has country’s largest African American population accounting for a third of states population. This is where former president faces case accusing him to pressurise officials to overturn the 2020 elections.
In the last two elections the one winning Michigan became president, but this time Democrats fear backlash of supporting Israel in the Gaza war and fear youth here might slip from them. Nevada, with a small six voters in Electoral colleges is crucial as despite voting Democrats for last several elections, Republicans are building ground and President Biden won here with a small 34,000 vote victory.
North Carolina has seen Democratic hopes rise after the nomination of Kamal Harris, as the state borders Georgia and shares its electoral concerns with it. But in 2020 Trump won the state by 70,000 plus votes.
Like Michigan who wins Wisconsin wins the White House, but here the victory margins in last two elections have been around 20,000 votes and hence the state with 10 electoral votes goes down to the wire.
And in the end, Pennsylvania is the battle of battle among all swing states as it carries 19 electoral votes. Last elections too it was the last state to announce the results and saw Jo Biden through. Both candidates are spending most time here and pumping in resources like there is no tomorrow.
November 5, will tell which way these super seven swing.
