PROLONGED ISRAEL, HAMAS CONFLICT...

The continued Hamas “Operation alAqsa Flood” and Israel’s counteroffensive “Operation Iron Swords” has left thousands of Israelis and Palestinians including Hamas militants dead and many more held as captives by Hamas. As the conflict continues the situation further deteriorates with many nations extending support to either of the parties at war. The global security environment further dips to new low with this fresh escalation of conflict and presents a major global security threat and shattering hopes of any revival of Middle East Peace Process in near future. The US and Britain and its allies have openly aligned with Israel and the Islamic nations specially Iran, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and the likes have openly supported Hamas. The conflict has now widened up with Hezbollah supported by Iran have openly bombarded on northern borders of Israel. The US Airforce jets have bombed the Eastern region in Syria targeting facilities used by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. A large Israeli ground incursion into the Gaza Strip to wipe out Hamas is turning into a stalemate and has worsening the conditions for those trapped in the resource-deprived and blockaded enclaves in Gaza. So far over 15,000 Palestinians and 1,200 Israelis have been killed and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu intends to continue its fight against Hamas “until absolute victory.” The Hamas has demanded complete cessation of the aggression against Gaza by IDF if they have to join negotiations and return of the prisoners to Israel. Well the war scenario is getting grimmer and needs vigorous efforts to de-escalate the situation in the region to save the further miseries and obviate this local war taking shape a major global conflict. Amid a growing international outcry over the death toll in Gaza, US President Joe Biden has not directly commented on Israel to scale back its assault but asked Israel to focus on saving civilian lives.

The Israeli-Palestinian conflict has its roots in the late 19th century when Jews fleeing anti-Semitism in Russia and central Europe began immigrating to Palestine. Palestine is partitioned into Jewish and Arab states under United Nations Resolution 181, approved in November 1947. The region has seen three major Arab - Israel wars in 1948, 1967 and 1973 and a series of smaller conflicts between the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) and Lebanon, IDF and Palestine supporters (including Syrian supported militants Hamas and Iranian supported Hezbollah group). The Hamas controlled Gaza and Palestine Authority in West Bank have never remained peaceful and witnessed clashes continuously as the IDF supporting Israeli settlers’ violence and militant activities of Hamas or Hezbollah in this region have been the bone of contention.

The latest flare up by Hamas on 07 Oct 2023 during the Jewish holiday of Simchat Torah and Shabbat leading to these escalated hostilities has dealt a body blow to Israel’s image of invincibility and its ability to identify and eliminate specific enemies of the state. The attacks have also dented the credibility of the country’s intelligence services. It has been Netanyahu governments fiasco and obvious military and intelligence failures as they failed to assess the real intentions of Hamas. The conflict has given the hardcore Israeli politicians a chance to re-emerge at the centre stage and will be dominating the national governance in time to come.

While the US led West have shown will to provide military support, the UAE, India and some others have openly supported Israel’s right to defend its national integrity and hit back at Hamas. However, Turkey, Iraq, Iran, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen, Saudi Arabia and some other Arab countries have come out in support of the Palestinians and Hamas. Russia and China have been pro Palestine but haven’t really openly condemned Israel for its counter offensive against Hamas. Even Lebanon has asked Hezbollah to vacate positions in proximity to Israel border and are being used to attack Israel indicating Lebanon doesn’t want direct confrontation with Israel. India has strongly condemned attacks by Hamas and branded it as act of terrorism and stands firmly with Israel but supports a “sovereign, independent and viable” state of Palestine living side-by-side at peace with Israel.

The US will like to see an early neutralisation of Hamas and end of this conflict without taking shape of Arab - Israel war so as to recommence and mediate Middle East Peace Process as well reinitiate peace process that would see Saudi Arabia normalize diplomatic relations with Israel in exchange for U.S. security guarantees and other favors. The US has to focus on Beijing over hot waves in South China Sea and Moscow over war in Ukraine. The Russians see this as an opportunity to divert attention of West from Ukraine war and reduction of supply of weapons to Ukraine. Russia may not like to get involved in the region unless its strong ally Syria is threatened. The Chinese who diplomatically stand with Palestine may not directly interfere being third largest trading partner of Israel. Iran has openly endorsed Hamas attacks and may be actively supporting Hezbollah attacking Israel in North with an aim to derail the ongoing peace deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia. A military confrontation between Israel and Iran over Iran’s nuclear program and its continued support for militant groups in neighbouring countries still remains a major threat.

Once Israel achieves its war aims, a ceasefire will need mediators, countries that enjoy credibility on both sides. Turkey could be one such player, perhaps the best mediators would be Saudi Arabia and Qatar working with Egyptian diplomats. However, revival of Middle East Peace Process still remains a major challenge for all stakeholders’ post cessation of these hostilities between Hamas and Israel. The major challenge still remains is role Hamas will have in Gaza governance and how far Israel accepts Palestine Authority supremacy over Gaza with or without Hamas. The locals in Gaza still favour a dominant role for Hamas. The US is against Israel retaining any territory in Gaza and Israel doesn’t intend letting Hamas free. The clash between Hamas and Israel has taken a serious turn, but there is still room to move in a better direction and need sincere efforts from all stakeholders to recommence Middle East Peace Process.

THE VIEWS EXPRESSED BY THE AUTHOR ARE PERSONAL

Col Rajesh Bhukar The writer is a Post Graduate in International Studies, Alumni of Defence Services Staff College, Wellington and College of Combat, Mhow