COP 29: Controversies or Commitment

Annual ritual to show concern on Climate change will be in focus for the next fortnight, this time in city of Baku in Azerbaijan. Since year 1995 when COP1 was held in Berlin, every year except year 2020; stakeholders meet takes place to deep dive on issues related to impact of climate change and mitigation strategies. In the journey of COP from Berlin to Baku major turning points were in terms of Kyoto Protocol in year 1997, Paris Agreement in year 2015 and Set up of Loss and Damage Fund in year 2022. Still the issues are same, will have the same concerns but in changed scenario, lot has changed since end of COP 28 held in Dubai last year. COP 29 is being held in the backdrop of year 2024 termed as the hottest year ever and recent election of Donald Trump as next President of United States of America. This time, it will be having almost half the attendance than previous one due to limited infrastructure for major gatherings plus a restrained private sector presence. Above that it is compounded with Azerbaijan’s controversial status a major fossil fuel producer.

CONTROVERSIES SURROUNDING THE HOST NATION

Many are questioning the credibility of a summit hosted by a nation that has built much of its economy on oil and gas production. Azerbaijan’s economy is heavily fuelled by oil, and the country is set to increase its gas production by a third, from 37 billion cubic metres (bcm) in 2024 to 49 bcm in 2033.

But it’s not just environmental groups taking issue, but several other organisations and stakeholders have also expressed deep concern over Azerbaijan’s human rights record casts a shadow over the nation’s leadership, citing arrests of journalists, suppression of civil society, and restricted freedoms that activists worry could influence how the conference unfolds.

May be to counter these controversies, COP29 has however gained positive attention for its increased Global South representation. The UN is allocating more badges to NGOs from the region to spotlight nations most affected by climate change, marking a strategic shift in participant representation. It’s a significant move that’s been widely applauded by climate activists for its aim to amplify voices from regions most affected by climate change and rebalance the historically uneven representation at these conferences.

SHIFTING THE NARRATIVE OF OILDEPENDENT ECONOMIES

Keeping controversies asides, Azerbaijan is taking up steps, which may become a role model for other nations especially Petroleum Exporting countries. Azerbaijan’s hosting could shift the narrative to include the realities and challenges faced by oil-dependent economies in the climate transition. Their leadership could serve as an example to other fossil fuel-reliant nations of how they, too, can navigate a just energy transition amid complex dependencies.

The nation has announced its ‘Green World Solidarity Year’ for 2024, accompanied by plans to reduce emissions by 35 per cent by 2030 and establish a ‘Net-Zero Emission Zone’ in the Karabakh region, showcasing its commitment to sustainable development despite its fossil-fuel background.

WHAT KEY TOPICS WILL BE COVERED AT COP29?

Topics of this year’s conference are expected to focus on advancing Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement, securing new climate financing, and building resilience in climate-vulnerable areas.

Nations are expected to submit their updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) for reduction in Carbon Emission before February 2025.

The nationally determined contributions (NDCs) are commitments that countries make to reduce their GHG emissions as part of climate change mitigation. These commitments include the necessary policies and measures for achieving the global targets set out in the Paris Agreement. The Paris Agreement has a longterm temperature goal which is to keep the rise in global surface temperature to well below 2°C (3.6°F) above pre industrial levels. The treaty also states that preferably the limit of the increase should only be 1.5°C (2.7°F). To achieve this temperature goal, greenhouse gas emissions should be reduced as soon as, and by as much as, possible. To stay below 1.5°C of global warming, emissions need to be cut by roughly 50% by 2030. This figure takes into account each country’s documented pledges or NDCs.

NDCs embody efforts by each country to reduce national emissions and adapt to the impact of climate change. It should outline what they intend to achieve and need to be updated every five years.

Before the Paris Agreement in 2015, INDCs were voluntary, non-binding pledges. Post-Agreement, NDCs became more committed but still not legally binding. Without having any legal binding on the nations to achieve their NDCs, it remains a loose commitment and more of an informal document. With initial pledges by countries inadequate, faster and more expensive future mitigation would be needed to still reach the targets. A pair of studies in The Nature found that as of 2017 none of the major industrialized nations were implementing the policies they had pledged, and none met their pledged emission reduction targets, and even if they had, the sum of all member pledges (as of 2016) would not keep global temperature rise “well below 2°C”.

A MORE STREAMLINED SUMMIT

The reduced attendance and intensified spotlight on host nation’s commitments are likely to bring a different atmosphere to COP29. The streamlined summit could promote solution-driven dialogues, balancing high-emitting countries’ needs with vulnerable nations’ climate adaptation demands. Given the rising global temperatures & frequent natural disasters, COP 29 presents a critical opportunity to develop concrete action plans, establish financing mechanisms, & define responsibilities to combat climate change. The urgency to address this escalating menace is greater than ever.

THE VIEWS EXPRESSED BY THE AUTHOR ARE PERSONAL

Dr Vivek S Agarwal The writer is specialist on Urban Health and Environment