NDA v/s INDI Alliance Game on in Maharashtra & Jharkhand

The clash of Titans, NDA Vs INDI Alliance, shall usher in a redefined political alignment on 23rd November 2024, after the Maharashtra & Jharkhand elections results are announced. Post 2024 Lok Sabha elections, this shall be the first encounter of the two political blocks. Do note that the battle for 369 assembly seats – 288 in Maharashtra & 81 in Jharkhand -shall be the litmus test for voter preference, for the 62 parliamentary seats which voted their Members of Parliament, merely four months ago. The outcome on 23rd Nov, shall confirm that coalitionbased block politics, was not a one off, opportunist grouping for the parliamentary elections, but can or shall be the bed rock of regional and local elections hence forth.

Six major political parties, divided in two opposing coalition blocks, are in the fray in Maharashtra. There are two, Shiv Senas - Shiv Sena & Shiv Sena (Uddhav). Two National Congress Party (NCP) – NCP (Ajit Pawar) & NCP (Sharad Chandra Pawar). Then a host of Ambedkarite parties, jostling for political alignment in Maharashtra politics. The demand for Maratha reservation that shall only flow after inclusion of Marathas withing the OBC category. A striking Maratha leader, Manoj Jarange Patil, who can turn around the entire political calculus in Marathwara & Vidharbha, whether in favour of MVA or Mahayukti. And then, the conventional BJP verses Congress, slugfest. Frankly, in the impending assembly polls, voters are uncertain, which Shiv Sena or which NCP to vote. Since 2023, Maharashtra is a nightmare for voters, political pundits and concerned political parties – no one knows, anything for certain.

Compared to Maharashtra, Jharkhand presents a different political template. The alliance-based block politics is the same as Maharashtra, but Jharkhand is a clear-cut case of tribal identity fed on depravationbased politics, loaded against the BJP or NDA. The Sorens are touting their alleged victimization by Enforcement Directorate (ED) as trampling of Tribal identity. An emotional cord, that can consolidate 29% tribal population with 14% Yadavs and 15% Muslims, making for a formidable, 58% vote block for the INDI Alliance.

While logic takes to wind, when we discuss political confabulations and voting imperatives, the NDA alliance seems to be bound by limiting possibilities in both Maharashtra & Jharkhand. Interestingly, such desktop political projections have been shoved in the dustbin post Haryana results. On the ground, post announcement of poll dates, the ease with which NDA has announced its seat sharing algorithm, candidate declaration & cohesive accommodation, I would venture to guess, the NDA has had, a good start in both states.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi the face of NDA has reposed faith in the current Maharashtra Chief Minister Eknath Shinde and his Labharthi based inclusive politics. Deputy CM Devendra Fadnavis has clarified in no uncertain terms that Shinde is the CM face for the NDA coalition. Shiv Sena shall be fighting over 75 seats, NCP (Ajit Pawar) approximately 40 seats and 150 plus seats are earmarked for the BJP. And there is still room for accommodation of new allies in the shape of Ambekarite parties. The much touted anti-incumbency against the Shinde – Fadnavis government is being effectively managed by the RSS, which shall be holding more than 20,000 small gatherings to recondition the public sentiment. The ground activity of BJP workers is already in full swing and electoral management – the hallmark of BJP – is already underway.

Contrast this with INDI Alliance or Maha Vikas Aghadi(MVA) march towards a so called coalition cohesion. Shiv Sena (Uddhav) has made it clear that anything less than 10 seats in Vidharbha is unacceptable. Congress state leadership is battling its worst nightmare in accommodating the demands of SS (Uddhav), as some 25 seats are under immense dispute. The seat sharing formula with NCP (Sharad Pawar) is also up in the winds.. With less than 40 days before polling on 20th Nov, the MVA is still riddled with one upmanship and political ego centric gas bagging. A typical trait seen during the LS polls and then Haryana assembly elections.

Similar is the case in Jharkhand.. The seat sharing formulation within INDI Alliance is far from settled. Hemant Soren shall be deciding the fate of coalition partners, starting from candidate selection, based on winnability criteria. The Jharkhand Congress unit is protesting the dominance of Sorens (Hemant & Kalpana) as they fear getting less number of seats compared to 2019. NDA, on the other hand has declared its alignment in Jharkhand. 68 seats for BJP, 10 for AJSU, 2 seats for JDU and 1 seat for LJP(RV). The NDA candidate lists are to be declared in the next two to three days.

Taking a leaf out of the Haryana results and the drumming received in Maharashtra during Lok Sabha polls, NDA is far ahead in its poll management strategy. INDI Alliance is still smarting & pondering over Congress performance in Haryana. INDI Alliance partners continue to present a near perfect picture of opportunism at its pinnacle. So, how should the desktop, data driven, remote sensing pontification, assess the ground preparation for the two impending assembly polls. How does one toss-up between the emotional prerequisite with the INDI Alliance verses political deft handling & accommodation led electoral management of the NDA…

Frankly, it’s up to the voters. But as I write this piece, I shall call the impending elections as – Advantage NDA…

THE VIEWS EXPRESSED BY THE AUTHOR ARE PERSONAL

Ajay Kumar The writer is Political Commentator & Journalist