What Trump’s big victory will mean for US foreign policy?

A Donald Trump victory in the 2024 US presidential election would likely lead to a continuation and possible intensification of his previous foreign policy stances, which were characterised by “America First” nationalism, skepticism of multilateralism, and a preference for bilateral deals over international agreements.

Approach to Alliances and Multilateralism

Trump has been critical of NATO and other international alliances, questioning their value to the US. He might continue to push for European allies to shoulder more of the defense burden and show less enthusiasm for international agreements like the Paris Climate Accord. This could lead to more strain in relationships with allies.

Trade Policy

Trump’s focus on reducing trade deficits and protecting American manufacturing would likely lead to a more protectionist trade policy. This could mean more tariffs and trade wars, particularly with China, but also with other trading partners like the European Union or Mexico.

Middle East

Trump might continue to prioritise disengagement from prolonged conflicts.However, his administration’s “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran would likely continue.

Immigration and Border Security

Trump’s focus on immigration restrictions would likely persist, influencing the US’s relationship with its neighbours, especially Mexico. His administration might push for more stringent border control measures.

China and Russia

Trump has been both critical and conciliatory toward China, so his stance could continue to be unpredictable. He may continue to confront China on issues like intellectual property theft, trade imbalances, and human rights abuses, but could also seek a more transactional relationship, potentially easing tensions if the terms are favorable to the US. With Russia, Trump’s personal relationship with Vladimir Putin might lead to a softer stance than his predecessors, though geopolitical realities, including the war in Ukraine, would likely limit his flexibility in this regard.

Global Institutions

Trump was often critical of international institutions such as the United Nations and World Health Organization. He might seek to withdraw or limit US involvement in these organisations.