Modi-Shah’s presence in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan will be the biggest factor in BJP’s victory in these states: Dr Chandra

Giving an in depth analysis of the current political situation in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, Dr Jagdeesh Chandra, CEO and Editor-in-Chief, Bharat24-Vision of New India and CMD and Editor-in-Chief , First India News and First India, sheds light on how Gehlot’s MSP promise could turn out to be game changer for Congress, how Gurjar community votes will be an important factor, how Modi’s rallies will ensure massive votes for BJP and how even Kamal Nath can lose the edge to Shivraj in MP because of Modi-Shah’s campaigns. Excerpts...

• Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot is called a ‘game changer.’ But will his statement regarding MSP turn out to be game changer for Congress this time?
  Dr Jagdeesh Chandra: The politics of freebies will have to be accepted by BJP since they too have understood its mechanism. In that, Ashok Gehlot is a mastermind. It was him, who brought forward the Old Pension Scheme and stuck to it as a result of this, this model was followed by Congress in Karnataka and Himachal Pradesh and there the Congress formed its government, resulting in Ashok Gehlot becoming a ‘Hero’ for Congress. Thereafter, he brought the Chiranjeevi insurance of Rs 25 lakh. Someone in Jaipur told me that his son went out for four days and when he returned he informed the family that he underwent knee replacement surgery without spending one rupee of his own, all thanks to the Chiranjeevi Scheme. This is miraculous. I also heard that officials associated with PM’s office got together to find a solution for this scheme. About half a dozen meetings were held and then it was decided to increase its ambit to Rs 50 lakh. In addition, Gehlot has given mobiles to women after which he brought ‘Annapurna Yojana.’ Now the manifesto is going to be announced. Gehlot believes that at present, he is on 82 seats and is looking for some miraculous development from his side to up his seats to 100. Meanwhile, BJP says that it is firmly perched on 140 seats. In fact, one senior leader told me that there will be tsunami of seats and the party will get 150 seats. Even if they don’t get 150, the betting market is claiming BJP will get 130 odd seats and surveys are pitching BJP around 118-120 mark. Meanwhile, Ashok Gehlot is not giving up and someone told me today that Gehlot’s own assessment is of 106 seats. So just before election, Gehlot wants to play a hand and thus, has picked up the MSP issue, which has always been a topic of concern for farmers. Gehlot wants to give legal guarantee to farmers that his government will purchase everything they produce. Then he is promising ERCP as well, but how much will the Central government let him work on it is questionable since it requires a huge amount of money and it is known that it is being done for political gain. Then there is caste census which Rahul Gandhi has said that it will be implemented across the nation. So, Ashok Gehlot is trying his level best to garner each and every single vote into his kitty that perhaps he reaches 100 seats. If Congressbags 98 seats then it will be difficult for him to form government since there is another party’s government in Delhi.

• There are some quarters who claim that there is doubt about Gurjar community supporting Congress this time around over Sachin Pilot. What is your take on this?
  See, that was the general perception since the community believes that since Pilot was not made the CM, he wasn’t treated well. Today the biggest question in Rajasthan’s politics is who will the Gurjars vote for? The answer to this question is not only being sought by Ashok Gehlot, but Amit Shah too. There are few Gurjar dominated districts like Jaipur rural, Bharatpur, Sawai Madhopur, Alwar, Dholpur and a few others which are Gurjar dominated. But one change that can happen is that Pilot is assured that if Congress government is formed this time around, then Sonia Gandhi will get him to take oath as CM. My view is different in this regard because what happened on September 25 shows that Gehlot will never let go of power. But the world revolves on hope and Pilot has every right to be hopeful. Even if he was not promised in the past about CM’s chair, he has definitely been told this time around, specially by Priyanka Gandhi. From what I have heard, it is being said that first Pilot should get Gurjar votes in Congress’ kitty and then when the government is formed, will the question of leadership arise. If government is not formed then Pilot’s dream would die. Ashok Gehlot has been CM for 15 years, Pilot hasn’t been the CM ever and thus, it could be that through Priyanka’s support, Pilot may be supported. Then there is another angle to this issue. Ashok Gehlot’s strategy says that he has already made plans which exclude Gurjar votes, but would still get Congress back in the driver’s seat, since wherever there has been Gurjar influence, he has fielded Gurjar candidates and has also given tickets to Pilot supporters and thus, Pilot will have to ensure victory of his supporters in order for his dream to stay alive. So, I think Gurjar vote will not play a major role. So I do not buy this theory that Gurjar votes will hamper Congress’ performance on 40 seats.

• We have seen immense crowd in Gehlot’s rallies and on the other hand, the betting market in Rajasthan claims that BJP will form government. How do you evaluate this contradiction?
  It is a fact that in Gehlot’s 3-4 meetings, a crowd ranging from 4,000 to 10,000 has been witnessed. This has happened for the first time in Gehlot’s life, since earlier there used to be anti-incumbency, and the manner in which people are coming to these meetings on their own, was not seen in the past. If 7 or 8,000 people are turning up on their own in CM’s rallies, then it simply means that there is no anti-incumbency. And the second surprising aspect is that these meetings are being held in local candidate’s area but there is no opposition in here. Where have those people vanished who claimed they would show black flags to CM? The candidate is campaigning for his victory in the area and the observers are perplexed as to what has suddenly happened? The observers had said that if votes are sought on current legislators then Congress would get only 40 seats, but the candidates are not being opposed to. So does that mean that people have accepted these candidates or has the voter chosen to remain silent and show might only on the polling day? But it is definitely miraculous that people are gathering in thousands in Gehlot’s meetings and it should concern BJP as it only has PM Modi and Amit Shah as its main face. Raje is moving about in limited area and there are no crowd pullers at local level that can stand at par with Gehlot, before the people.

• Do you think PM Modi’s public rallies will become a ‘game changer’ for BJP?
  PM Modi and Amit Shah are BJP’s only hope. As of right now, only these two are there. Yes, at regional level, there is Gajendra Singh Shekhawat, Vasundhara Raje, Rajendra Rathore, CP Joshi and others and as such, they are doing it for BJP only, if they campaign for anyone. What I mean to say that PM and Amit shah are the only hope and I believe he is coming to Jaipur soon and will move through the walled city where lakhs of people will see him which will create a wave. However, in Rajasthan politics, unfortuntely for BJP, the party hasn’t been able to pick up or create issues over which it can counter the government and lobby before people to want them to remove the government. This is a bizarre thing. PM has done a dozen meetings and recently in Udaipur he held a rally of 50,000 people. It is due to this crowd that he has this confidence in saying that he doesn’t need anyone and that he will bring the government on his own. This is people’s confidence in him that gives Modi the confidence to take challenges. I believe that PM’s public meetings in coming days in Rajasthan will result in increasing seats in BJP’s favour and will definitely be a ‘game changer.’

• What is your take on Madhya Pradesh? Will Kamal Nath be able to form government this time?
  May be or may not be. The difference has lessened. About three months back, the BJP was nowhere to be seen and Kamal Nath had clear lead, but today, that lead is no where to be seen. According to an optimistic calculation that Congress has got done for Madhya Pradesh, Kamal nath is getting only 95 seats and BJP is getting 80 seats. However, in the analysis of channels and agencies, the tally stands at par for both the BJP and the Congress. Overall, there is a difference of 10 to 12 seats and the manner in which PM Narendra Modi and Shah have camped in MP, it would not be right to rule out that their being in MP may tilt the difference in BJP’s favour. So, we can say that Kamal nath and Congress’ coming to power is a possibility and not a certainty.

• So if BJP is repeated in Madhya Pradesh, who will be its CM? Will Shivraj be repeated?
  There are several candidates for the position of CM. There is only one negative aspect regarding Shivraj Singh Chouhan that people have started getting bored of his face. Other than that he is a good CM and has been there for 16 years. He is an example of old school BJP and RSS ethics as he is low profile, simple and of humble demeanour. For once, party did sideline him when Tomar, Pralhad and others were brought in and it sent a message that Shivraj is not indispensable, which must have demoralised him a bit. But later, it was realised that he is the ‘face’ of government since he is standing before the public and if he gets demoralised then how would the party work? This was perhaps communicated or understood by RSS and Amit Shah, thus, he was brought back into the main stream and PM gave statements praising him. Of late, Shivraj has become emotional too and has been saying that if he loses then the women of MP, which he addresses as his sisters, will remember him. Perhaps he too has this idea that he may lose. But according to me, all said and done, he is the leading candidate for the post of CM and the face of party in MP as CM. The next candidate for CM’s chair is Narendra Singh Tomar. Then among other candidates, there could be Scindia or Patel as well and if ‘in principle’ decision is taken that they have bring a new face, then I think Tomar could be the front runner and as such, it is difficult to read what goes on in Narendra Modi & Amit Shah’s minds. But then 2024 election would be right around the corner after the results come in and that aspect will also have to be factored in, so let’s see.

During the show #JConStateElection trended top All-India on Twitter