MODI AND SHAH’S LEADERSHIP IN KASHMIR IS IRREPLACEABLE, STRESSES Dr CHANDRA

In a recent analysis of the J&K polls after a decade, Dr Jagdeesh Chandra discussed PM Modi’s meetings in Doda, Katra, and Srinagar, where he criticized the “three families” as Kashmir’s destroyers. Modi’s campaign appears to have significantly boosted his standing, especially after he risked visiting Doda following a terrorist blast. Dr Chandra spoke about governance of Kashmir under Dr Manmohan Singh versus Modi. The BJP’s choice not to field candidates in 28 valley seats was also notable. Additionally, Dr Chandra questioned the Congress’s support for restoring Article 370, suggesting it could be a risky move. As a believer in astrology, he also sought insights from astrologers regarding the formation of the new government in J&K. Excerpts... (Part II)

• The Prime Minister had public meetings in Doda, Katra, and Srinagar. How was the response there?
  Dr Jagdeesh Chandra: The response was good. Initially, fewer people were in attendance at the Doda rally, but later, more joined in and it was a successful event. Such a programme in the region was being held after 40-42 years, so crowd swell was obvious. In Katra, there was a huge crowd that had come to hear the PM. The rallies went on as planned and envisaged. The purpose was achieved. He attacked the ’three families’ ... it was a good show of PM Modi in the public meetings.

• The Prime Minister has repeatedly attacked the ‘three families’ in his speeches in Jammu and Kashmir, calling them the destroyers of Kashmir. What does ‘three families’ mean?
  It points towards the traditional leadership of Kashmir, which has remained with Sheikh Abdullah, Farooq Abdullah, and Omar Abdullah on the one hand, and then with Mufti Mohammad Sayeed and his daughter Mehbooba Mufti. These are the families who have completely captured Kashmir as people can’t see and think beyond these leaders. These leaders have stalled and scuttled the development of Kashmir. It is both a political statement as well as factual. Ultimately these are the families that have ruled Kashmir for all these years and if Kashmir hasn’t developed, the onus must fall on them for the backwardness. The PM said these families were primarily responsible for the situation in Kashmir and people took his statement seriously, both within and outside Kashmir. I think, factually the PM is correct.

• Do you think the Jammu and Kashmir election has once again raised the graph of Narendra Modi to a great extent?
  Certainly it has. Narendra Modi is also lucky in a way. In every election, he gets an issue to latch on to and make the best political use of that. This time he took up the statement of the Pakistani defence minister and made a strong political pitch equating him with NC-Congress as being on the same platform and sharing the same agenda. Amit Shah also said in his speech that he would never allow the Pakistani agenda to be implemented in India via these people. And both on their part sounded so convincing that the whole of India aligned with it. I say again, the whole of India, irrespective of party platforms, except Kashmir where there can still be debate, is unified in their support of the issue. No matter what they say politically, in their mind, they know and accept that what Modi and Shah did in Kashmir was right and there is no substitute for them. They all believe that the government under Narendra Modi and Amit Shah deserves a vote of thanks for the good work they have done in Kashmir.

• Why did Modi take the risk of going to Doda when there was a terrorist blast at the place just two days before?
  Because it is in his nature. He is never scared. He likes to face challenges. I have read somewhere that he once said, it is my mission to throw a challenge to challenge. It is my philosophy. So, the blast didn’t ruffle him. Agencies must have advised him against it. Two terrorists were killed in the area just four days back. PM Modi addressed a rally hardly 65km away from the same site. It all boils down to his courage and conviction. People are amazed, but he gets his work done successfully. Even the agencies realise, he is correct in his assessment. It is an attribute of his character.

• How do you see the handling of Kashmir in the tenure of Dr Manmohan Singh and Narendra Modi?
  There is a whole lot of difference- like day and night. It was a stalemate situation then. The status quo was maintained. This government has done a lot, which is in front of you to see. There has been a drastic makeover of Kashmir. It is much more open now. People’s lives have changed. So the total turnaround of Kashmir has been brought solely by the efforts of Narendra Modi and Amit Shah. During Manmohan Singh’s tenure it was more of an appeasement policy. Not only Manmohan Singh, even before him, for the last 40 years or so, even with Mufti, the effort had been to buy peace with the terrorists and keep them placated. They stressed peace talks, but no one took upon them front-on. This government did so and won. That regime was stagnant and dormant, this regime has been active. This is the reason why despite the dangers, elections are happening today in Kashmir. Actually, there is no comparison between Manmohan Singh and Narendra Modi’s style of functioning and their achievements during their respective tenures.

• What prompted the BJP not to field its candidates on 28 seats in the valley? Will independents be the game-changers and kingmakers in this election?
  The decision not to fight for 28 seats is a strategy of Amit Shah. He is the best judge to make a judgment. He may have thought it is better not to field candidates than to face defeat. He may have thought it wiser to support candidates of other aligned parties or independent candidates. Therefore, he chose candidates for 19 seats, who he thought were winning candidates and left the rest. The results will show now. It is expected this time that a large number of independent candidates are going to win the elections. Most of the independents will be found standing in front of Amit Shah’s house after their win, let me assure you. Even if the BJP has a 10% chance of forming the government, independents will prefer Amit Shah to any other party. Opening an account in the valley is indeed difficult. It has always been tough for the BJP. The party must have decided against taking a risk where it felt the chances of winning were bleak. Miracles happen in politics. The BJP may win 2-4 seats on its own very easily. The tally may reach 8-10 as well. Who knows? But the BJP projected conservative numbers and avoided taking the risk in a bid not to waste seats. Rather it thought of giving a chance to others, no matter which party, knowing very well that in the end, every winning candidate, irrespective of his party affiliation, will come to the BJP.

• If an independent candidate, who wins, has a terror background or a terror funding history, will he be considered for the post of a minister according to the political arithmetic?
  Yes, that will happen. But it would be a very unfortunate and dangerous development in Indian politics under the garb of Kashmir elections. It is not important which party he relates to, whether it is the BJP, or the Congress, or PDP, or if he is an engineer. The question is, can a person who even once had a militant background, be made a minister? Can he be entrusted with the responsibility of governance? I don’t approve of this idea, but politics is then a game of arrangements. Let’s see how many seats they win, and if their participation happens in the government. Even if they are inducted, how do they behave in the first 100 days, what is their character, and what are their activities, do they still keep in touch with their old militant friends? These are things to be seen. But as a matter of principle, I think these people must not be associated with matters of governance.

• Don’t you think, all the independent candidates in the valley are losing their reputation by being widely considered by the people as proxy BJP candidates?
  It is possible. It is the other part of the story. The public is much smarter these days, you can’t take them for granted. Every independent candidate is associated with some party or the other, at least that is the impression. He belongs to the Congress, and that person belongs to the BJP or the PDP, such is the general perception in the valley. So, yes, these candidates have certainly lost their credibility around their acumen and charm. People give decisive mandates these days. They can just sweep over this issue altogether. So, let’s see how things shape up. People may give votes to BJP-supported independent candidates instead of directly supporting the BJP. It will be interesting to see!

• There is a general discussion in Delhi and Srinagar that Rashid Engineer’s Awami Ittehad Party is a proxy party of the BJP. Do you agree with this?
  He is himself worried about this. You see, as soon as he got out of jail he criticised PM Modi. Again, two days later, in an interview with India Today, he was heard saying if Narendra Modi listened to him, India could be a ‘Vishwaguru.’ Look at his change in tone. Rashid is a smart man. He knows, if he has to join hands with someone, the BJP would be a better choice, though the BJP says it doesn’t have any proxy party and it would fight the polls on its moral character. But the impression in the market is Rashid’s party is a proxy of the BJP. By bringing the reference of Modi’s ‘Vishwaguru’ motto, he has only strengthened this perception. Who would bring this reference but a patron and follower of Modi and BJP? He may not claim so openly, but inside his allegiance is towards the BJP. So the perception in the general public is strongly there, that Rashid’s party is the proxy party of the BJP.

• Amit Shah has said that Jammu will decide who will form the government in Jammu and Kashmir. So, has the BJP prepared to completely sweep Jammu this time?
  Yes. It has prepared the plan for the same. An impression has been created inside which indicates that if they win 35 of the 43 seats in Jammu, they may make Jammu a separate state altogether. I have heard there have been discussions on that. The people of Jammu have borne the brunt of terrorism. They feel if other parties come to power, violence will start again. So, it is likely that they will decisively favour the BJP and vote for it. The party expects 35 seats, it may even win more, but you never know how the public behaves. Rahul Gandhi went there and messed up with issues like Article 370 etc. On the other hand, Amit Shah and Narendra Modi worked with full focus. In their speeches and rallies, they have been able to convince the people and also brand Congress as the party that would implement the agenda of Pakistan if voted to power. What is a sweep? It is about cornering 51% of total votes, right? Out of 43 seats, even in the worst-case scenario the BJP is going to win 26-27 seats. So, the sweep is certain.

• Who will get the real benefits of the delimitation that has been implemented in Jammu and Kashmir?
  Jammu will get the benefit. See, the new delimitation has raised the number of seats in Jammu by six and Kashmir by one. And Jammu’s tilt is towards the BJP, so it is clear. It appears that delimitation is going in the favour of the BJP. If it manages to sweep 35 seats, it will be self-explanatory. If it wins 24-25 seats, it can be called normal. So, the result will ultimately speak for itself.

• Initially, the Congress supported the demand of Farooq and Omar Abdullah to bring back Article 370. Do you think, this is suicidal for Congress?
  Absolutely. That’s why Rahul Gandhi smartly disassociated himself from this and only played up the separate statehood issue. Congress committed the mistake of thinking that Kashmir is India. But it is not. Kashmir is just one of the 29 states in India. India is very big. An issue may suit it in Kashmir, but the same can be its losing cause in the rest of India. The Article 370 issue has damaged it. Now, how deep the damage is, only time will tell. Elections in other states will show its impact. But it was a strategic blunder on the part of the Congress.

• You are a staunch believer in astrology and keep in touch with renowned astrologers of the country. So, what is their assessment on government formation in J&K?
  Narendra Modi and Amit Shah are the kind of people who even turn around astrological predictions. However, the astrologers I have consulted have given their predictions in favour of the NC-INC alliance. One astrologer has given 51-56 seats to the alliance with around 42% vote share, 23-26 seats to the BJP with 28- 30% vote share, with the PDP getting 5-7 seats with 18% share. Rajasthan astrologer Kumar Ganesh has also predicted somewhat similar figures, giving around 51 seats to the Congress alliance. So the trend points towards an NCINC government but you never know. Miracles may happen. The way things have changed in the valley, the BJP can emerge as the single largest party and form the government. That can even belie the astrologers. Moreover, the basic equation of 35 seats from Jammu and 10 from Kashmir is almost a given for the BJP. The governor will then invite the largest party to form the government and it is to be seen which party can forge more alliances and add up the numbers. Let’s keep our fingers crossed and see whether the predictions of astrologers come true or the efforts of the BJP bear fruits.

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